Monday, November 6

My Dumb-ass predictions

Okay-- first, local:

I expect in Vermont that the big winners in tomorrow's election will
be Sanders, Welch, Douglas and Dunne. Vermont Republicans will
suffer badly this time around at the local legislative level, worse
than four years ago.

In national news, I expect the House to break with 233 Democrats and
202 Republicans. I'd like to see the Republicans drop below 200 in
the house, but I don't expect it. As far as nearby races go, I
expect Paul Hodes to win in NH, which was unheard of three weeks ago.

I expect the close Senate races to reflect a six-seat gain for
Democrats, picking up Missouri Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode
Island and Virginia. Ford and Pederson will both lose and Menendez
will hold his seat.

My one upset prediction is that Lamont will beat Lieberman.

I hope I'm wrong about Douglas and Pederson, but I'm probably not.



Anonymous said...

Wow, for some "dumb-ass" predictions, you were pretty dead on. The only mistake you made was the Lamont upset, unfortunatly, because I was REALLY hoping for it. Unless the FL-13 revote happens (which I doubt), there will be exactly a 233-202 breakdown in the House.

Julie in VT said...

I actually got the Matt Dunne prediction wrong, too, but I was -really- right about the Vermont legislature; Republicans got creamed, even more than I thought they would. They were whiny about it, too.

I think the difference between this year and prior predictions was that this time I took electoral fraud into account-- I think if this had been a fair election, it would have been 240+ house seats for the Democrats, but I made the assumption that not enough of those races would exceed the margin of fraud.